Deep Interpretation of Pharmaceutical Intermediate Industry

I. Professional Survey

1. Industry Profile

Pharmaceutical intermediates industry refers to those chemical enterprises that produce organic/inorganic intermediates or raw materials for pharmaceutical products by chemical or biosynthetic methods according to strict quality standards. Here, pharmaceutical intermediates are divided into CMO and CRO sub-industries.

CMO: ContractManufacturing Organization refers to the entrusted contract manufacturing enterprises, that is to say, pharmaceutical companies outsource production links to partners. The business chain of pharmaceutical CMO industry usually starts with special pharmaceutical raw materials. Industry companies need to purchase basic chemical raw materials and classify them into special pharmaceutical raw materials. The starting materials of APIs, cGMP intermediates, APIs and pharmaceuticals are gradually formed by reprocessing. At present, major multinational pharmaceutical companies tend to establish long-term strategic partnerships with a few core suppliers. The survival of Companies in the industry is basically clear through their partners.

CRO: Clinical Research Organization refers to the commissioning of contract research institutions, in which pharmaceutical companies outsource research links to partners. At present, customized production, customized R&D, medical contract research and sales are the main cooperation modes in this industry. No matter which way, whether pharmaceutical intermediates are innovative products or not, the core competitiveness of enterprises is still judged by R&D technology as the first element, which is reflected in the company's downstream customers or partners.

2. Industry Scale, Development Speed, Major Manufacturers, etc.

According to the data of IMS Health Incorporated, a professional medical research and consulting agency, the global pharmaceutical market reached 959 billion US dollars in 2012 and is expected to reach 12 billion US dollars in 2017. Based on this, the annual composite growth rate of the global pharmaceutical market is estimated to be 4.6% in 2012-2017. The global pharmaceutical market is about 18 times larger than the global pesticide market.

In 2010, the global pharmaceutical customization R&D and manufacturing industry had a market size of 24 billion US dollars, accounting for 2.80% of the global drug market in the same period. From 2011 to 2014, the global pharmaceutical customization R&D and manufacturing industry is expected to maintain an annual composite growth rate of 8.86%, which is higher than the growth rate of the global drug market in the same period.

In 2010, the market size of customized R&D and production of Chinese medicine was US$1.7 billion, which is expected to grow to US$3.1 billion by 2015, with an average compound annual growth rate of 12.77%. Combining with the relevant information of domestic listed companies, the main business model of large manufacturers is customized production. Under the customized production model, the cooperation relationship between big customers and suppliers is relatively stable. The closer the cooperation is, the higher the trust is, the more cooperation categories provided by big customers will be. Replacement of suppliers requires a long period of inspection. Therefore, as a highly sticky business, pharmaceutical intermediates industry enterprises at this stage are mainly focused on well-known foreign pharmaceutical enterprises.

At present, the domestic pharmaceutical intermediates industry is only tens of billions of dollars, and the global scale is tens of billions of dollars. However, considering that most of the competitors of comparable products are 2-3, once the company enters the core supplier system of pharmaceutical giants, it maintains a fairly stable state in terms of production scale or gross profit rate. Personally, the external environment does not yet have the conditions to form desert flower enterprises that rely on environmental protection to reduce the supply side and win by technological and cost advantages. It is more likely to form scale advantages by relying on technological advantages, thus opening up the upstream and downstream industrial chain and forming a leading enterprise in a subdivision of the pharmaceutical field.

Some manufacturers at home and abroad:

Among them, Boteng shares only occupy 0.34% of the global pharmaceutical customization R&D market, but account for 1% of the revenue, which has formed a certain influence. Some listed companies have benefited from lower upstream costs and customized production. In recent years, the production scale of pharmaceutical intermediates related products has been gradually expanded, and the pharmaceutical intermediates industry is booming.

Here's a little bit about pesticide intermediates related to pharmaceutical intermediates (some companies are involved in both, and the proportion of pesticide intermediates is higher). The market capacity of pharmaceutical intermediates (about 180 billion yuan) is more than three times that of pesticide intermediates (about 50 billion yuan). Pesticide intermediates and pharmaceutical intermediates have both similarities and obvious differences. The common point is that pesticide intermediates and pharmaceutical intermediates have high customer overlap and high technology overlap. The difference is that pharmaceutical intermediates are a more demanding business, for example, production processes must meet GMP standards.

II. Analysis of Industry Market Structure

1. Supply-demand relationship

In 2010-2020, the global pharmaceutical market will usher in a wave of patent expiration climax. In 2013-2020, the global average number of patent expiration varieties exceeds 200 annually, which is internationally known as Patent Cliff. Since 2000, the global generic drug market has continued to grow faster than the entire pharmaceutical market, more than twice the growth rate of patent drugs. The global generic drug market is expected to reach US$180 billion in 2013. Based on this, the CAGR of the global generic drug market is expected to reach 14.7% in 2005-2013. Relevant agencies predict that the global generic drug market will grow by 10% - 14% in the next five years, much higher than the expected growth rate of 4% - 6% for the entire pharmaceutical industry. It can be inferred that the development of generic drug market will obviously promote the development of pharmaceutical intermediates industry.

European and American customers are more willing to transfer part of the production process to China due to environmental protection, cost, patent expiration of original research drugs and other factors. With the rapid rise of domestic production capacity and R&D capacity and the characteristics of many varieties and small batches of intermediates, pharmaceutical intermediates enterprises are able to receive and absorb related products.